Last week I titled my weekly essay on Spain "Spain: Macrosociology of an economic crisis", but I got so caught up in the economic details I never got to the concept of "macrosociology." That's what can happen when I write a headline before I write the essay. By "macrosociology" I mean the sociology of a whole society, not just its economic or justice system, or its problems of urbanization, or its demographic changes, or its religious and other ideological conflicts, or its narrative and musical traditions, but all of these (at least) and how they relate to one another. What I meant to imply by that headline last week was that, to properly understand Spain's current economic problems, we need to understand many other things about Spain, because the peculiarities of its economic crisis cannot be explained by economists alone.
I consider economics to be a specialization within the broader field of sociology, as cardiology within medicine. We need those specialists, but they need us generalists to understand why the systems they focus on don't always function the same way. The bursting of the housing bubble and "sub-prime mortgages" in the U.S. has hurt everywhere, but in different ways in the U.S. and Canada, Germany, Ireland, Greece, or Spain, because social context of political and social pressures, cultural traditions toward spending and consuming, in each of those countries limits what spculators and finance institutions and governments and businesses can do.
In Spain the rapid growth and sudden collapse of an economy overly dependent on the construction industry was facilitated by the weakness of institutional controls over conflict of interest (local city councils in cahoots with and on the take from developers to privatize everything that could yield a profit) and the continuing polarization of the society between rich opportunists, convinced that they deserve every penny that they can steal, and a much larger but more poorly organized segment maintaining collective, communal values. And this polarization and this institutional weakness are both aftermaths of the still-unresolved conflicts, which began before and have continued long since the open war of 1936-39.
The furious campaign to silence Spain's best-known, most admired and most aggressive defender of institutional justice, Baltasar Garzón, is evidence that the hostilities continue. The charges are so absurd, and the accusers uncredible, that respected jurists defending human rights around the world find it hard to believe that Garzón, whom they look to as a leader in their struggle, should be put on trial. But the reasons have become obvious: Garzón's investigations of wrong-doing of the Franco years are intolerable to all those judges who were sworn in at that time or by judges of that era; his investigations in the past of illegal police actions by the Socialist government of Felipe González lost him the support of many of the old Socialists; his discovery of deep and extensive corruption by the right-wing Popular Party has turned the many powerful PP regional political bosses and national deputies (members of parliament) into a lobby to destroy him; and a lot lawyers and judges hate him out of jealousy, because he is so famous and so popular abroad.
And there is another peculiarly Spanish sociological phenomenon: The judicial system is almost entirely corrupted by partisan politics, with judges named not by merit or popular election but by bartering among the politicized judges associations. Thus the judges who have admitted what should have been inadmissible charges, including some that had already been thrown out by earlier courts, are all those who have a grudge against this man.
Something good may come out of this horror, though. The campaign of accusations against Garzón -- that he sinned by daring to investigate human rights violations under Franco, that he ordered phone tapping in the corruption cases, and that he solicited money from the Santander Bank in exchange for dismissing a case against the bank president -- is so absurd that it is bringing to light the far wider corruption of the whole judicial system. We hope Garzón survives, but if his judicial enemies succeed (or even if they don't), they will be the laughing stock of the civilized world, and maybe some serious institutional reform of the system can get underway in this country.
2010/03/01
Coming up: Spain's un-justice system
Busy time right now, we've been preparing for our trip to Egypt -- from Carboneras to Madrid tomorrow, on Friday to Aswan, then Cairo for a week before we come back to Spain. Reading up on Egypt has been fascinating, but I hope to have a little time tomorrow or Wednesday to write my weekly report on Spain. Because there is a lot going on here that should be noticed. Especially the twisting of the judicial system for partisan ends that have nothing to do with justice and are seriously threatening the whole structure of Spanish democracy -- vibrant and noisy, but still not consolidated after the fratricide and dictatorship of recent memory. So I hope you'll come back tomorrow or next, and that you'll find some thoughts worth thinking about here.
By the way, it's been a big holiday locally: El Día de Andalucía, anniversary of the setting up of the autonomous region. That history, and Andalucía's present conditions, deserve some attention too. But later.
By the way, it's been a big holiday locally: El Día de Andalucía, anniversary of the setting up of the autonomous region. That history, and Andalucía's present conditions, deserve some attention too. But later.
2010/02/27
Sultan besieges another citadel
I've just submitted A Gift for the Sultan to another contest, the Narrative Library. It cost me $45, but it seems like less of a lottery than the Amazon Breakthrough Novel Award (which charges no fee), where the final selection is put to a vote of Internet users. If you're interested, check them out: Narrative Book Award Series.
(Image: Out Loud Students)
Publishing: The Revolutionary Future - The New York Review of Books
Thanks to friend Dirk for pointing me to this article by Jason Epstein, who has devoted much thought and much experience to this question.
Publishing: The Revolutionary Future - The New York Review of Books
We know he's right that the changes will be immense and will inevitably spawn new literary forms and new ways of filtering and modifying texts (what editors have done in print publishing). What we don't have yet is a model for compensating (paying) authors. I imagine that diverse systems will by invented, and some of them will survive better than others. For me personally, and all other authors who do not depend on writing income to survive, this won't be a serious issue; I wrote and published for pittances, and found other ways to make a living. For younger authors who want to write seriously and publish as I was able to do earlier in the previous print-publishing context, it is an issue.
Publishing: The Revolutionary Future - The New York Review of Books
We know he's right that the changes will be immense and will inevitably spawn new literary forms and new ways of filtering and modifying texts (what editors have done in print publishing). What we don't have yet is a model for compensating (paying) authors. I imagine that diverse systems will by invented, and some of them will survive better than others. For me personally, and all other authors who do not depend on writing income to survive, this won't be a serious issue; I wrote and published for pittances, and found other ways to make a living. For younger authors who want to write seriously and publish as I was able to do earlier in the previous print-publishing context, it is an issue.
2010/02/26
A Gift for the Sultan preview
I've just availed myself of this feature in the Createspace site: A very short excerpt from my novel. See A Gift for Sultan: Preview.
2010/02/25
Amazon contest
Mind - New Research Focuses on the Power of Physical Contact - NYTimes.com
Not so fast -- a "touchy" culture, as in Spain or Latin America where men embrace and even kiss one another and women even more so, can be very warm and supportive, but also exquisitely cruel. Though come to think of it, the cruelty at Abu-Ghraib by U.S. Wasps, normally a more stand-offish culture, was as intimate and exquisitely cruel as anything the Chilean or Argentine torturers came up with during their dirty war. Given the choice, as I was, I have chosen the touchy culture. I like the embraces, they make me feel more connected to the community.
Mind - New Research Focuses on the Power of Physical Contact - NYTimes.com
Mind - New Research Focuses on the Power of Physical Contact - NYTimes.com
Carboneras TV
This segment will give you an idea of some of what we're up to in our little town. Our group of "Personas Libro" -- "human books", people who memorize and perform short texts -- got together with the flamenco aficionados who gather every Friday night to perform, by voice, guitar and sometimes dance, in the Peña Flamenca. I'm the guy in the red sweater, presenting a poem by Luz María González about a flamenco dancer, while Pedro (don't know his surname) accompanies. Pedro & I are both pupils in the flamenco guitar course held on Saturdays, but Pedro is a bit more advanced than I.
Click on Carboneras TV
Click on Carboneras TV
2010/02/21
Spain: Macrosociology of an economic crisis
Thanks to my friend Andrew Hull, an economist and neighbor here on Spain's southeast coast, I've discovered the charts and analyses of Edward Hugh, a macroeconomist who keeps a close watch on several economies, including Spain's. Especially interesting to me is Hugh's blog, Spain Economy Watch. What they, both Andrew and Edward, make abundantly clear is that Spain's problems are deeper than either the government or the opposition is willing to admit -- though for opposite reasons.
The opposition Partido Popular would have us believe that Spain's soaring unemployment and deficit are due almost entirely to the economic mismanagement of the Socialist Party government, and that if they were in charge, they'd bring the country back to the booming prosperity of the recent past -- especially the years when PP leader José María Aznar was president, 1996-2004.
The governing Socialists know that that is impossible, in fact ridiculous, because the main economic policy of Aznar's time was to do everything possible to stimulate the construction boom bubble that has now burst. Zapatero said as much, just today: that it was the Aznar government that was mainly responsible for Spain's crisis -- a simplification, to be sure, but not totally off the mark.
Here are some observations I found most useful in Edward Hugh's blog:
The Socialists, unlike the PP, recognize that what everybody calls "the crisis" is truly a crisis (krisis, in Greek, appropriately enough, meaning a turning point). Meaning, that once you get to this point, you can't go back to where you were. The government, however, understates the depth of the problem and overstates the likely impact of its sometimes contradictory economic responses. Even when the most prudent thing would be to do nothing -- that is, not change policies until the Greek crisis is resolved in one way or another, or until there are clearer signs of what the European Central Bank and the credit markets might do -- the government seems to believe it must be seen to be doing something, because the unemployed and entrepreneurs without clients or credit grow impatient.
The only real solution will be long-term, much longer than the next electoral cycle. The Socialist Party, or at least a part of the party, recognizes this, and has come up with a long-term program for totally reorganizing the Spanish economy, making it much less dependent on construction, much more technical innovation, modernizing agriculture, developing Spain's already impressive advances in renewable energy sources, etc. -- all together, 10 economic sectors to be overhauled. It's a persuasive and well thought-out program, put out by the party's new think-tank, IDEAS, headed by Jesús Caldera. The program would assure a far more prosperous and egalitarian society, and it all is socially and economically within range of the Spain's human and material resources.
The question is whether it is politically within range -- whether the Socialists can keep their allies in the smaller parties and win the votes necessary to stay in power, either alone or in coalition, to see it through. Right now that looks doubtful.
The Partido Popular, meanwhile, offers no positive proposal except to tear down the Socialists. They may succeed in sabotaging the transformation Spain needs by their unprincipled attacks, and the Socialists themselves, being politicians, will no doubt sabotage themselves by opportunistic concessions and compromises to secure votes. But in the longer run, longer than the elections coming up in 2012 (or possibly earlier), something like Caldera's "IDEAS" ideas are a prize worth fighting for.
Spain Economy Watch (Edward Hugh)
Los empleos de la economía sostenible -- ELPAÍS.com
Fundación Ideas
Spanish Premier Insists Economic Recovery Is Near - NYTimes.com
The opposition Partido Popular would have us believe that Spain's soaring unemployment and deficit are due almost entirely to the economic mismanagement of the Socialist Party government, and that if they were in charge, they'd bring the country back to the booming prosperity of the recent past -- especially the years when PP leader José María Aznar was president, 1996-2004.
The governing Socialists know that that is impossible, in fact ridiculous, because the main economic policy of Aznar's time was to do everything possible to stimulate the construction boom bubble that has now burst. Zapatero said as much, just today: that it was the Aznar government that was mainly responsible for Spain's crisis -- a simplification, to be sure, but not totally off the mark.
Here are some observations I found most useful in Edward Hugh's blog:
As [Paul Krugman] shows, Spain had no fiscal problem till the housing boom went bust. Now of course, the need to prop up the economy, and support all the "unproductive" labour which doesn't show up in the unit labour costs chart is producing a massive fiscal deficit. Thus the fiscal issue in Spain is a symptom, not a cause. The root of the problem lies in the structural distortions produced by the massive overheating of the economy during the boom years, an overheating which lead to excessive inflation, large-scale dependence on imports, and a complete loss of competitiveness in the non-tradeable sector - a loss of competitiveness which even the Kingdom of Spain accept.…
So essentially the issues is this one. Spain's economy will not recover, and return to growth till Spanish products become more attractive in price terms, and this only means one thing: some sort of internal devaluation is inevitable, and all the talk about an exclusively fiscal correction is simply an attempt to get rid of the smoke without going to the trouble of extinguishing the fire which is producing it.
The Socialists, unlike the PP, recognize that what everybody calls "the crisis" is truly a crisis (krisis, in Greek, appropriately enough, meaning a turning point). Meaning, that once you get to this point, you can't go back to where you were. The government, however, understates the depth of the problem and overstates the likely impact of its sometimes contradictory economic responses. Even when the most prudent thing would be to do nothing -- that is, not change policies until the Greek crisis is resolved in one way or another, or until there are clearer signs of what the European Central Bank and the credit markets might do -- the government seems to believe it must be seen to be doing something, because the unemployed and entrepreneurs without clients or credit grow impatient.
The only real solution will be long-term, much longer than the next electoral cycle. The Socialist Party, or at least a part of the party, recognizes this, and has come up with a long-term program for totally reorganizing the Spanish economy, making it much less dependent on construction, much more technical innovation, modernizing agriculture, developing Spain's already impressive advances in renewable energy sources, etc. -- all together, 10 economic sectors to be overhauled. It's a persuasive and well thought-out program, put out by the party's new think-tank, IDEAS, headed by Jesús Caldera. The program would assure a far more prosperous and egalitarian society, and it all is socially and economically within range of the Spain's human and material resources.
The question is whether it is politically within range -- whether the Socialists can keep their allies in the smaller parties and win the votes necessary to stay in power, either alone or in coalition, to see it through. Right now that looks doubtful.
The Partido Popular, meanwhile, offers no positive proposal except to tear down the Socialists. They may succeed in sabotaging the transformation Spain needs by their unprincipled attacks, and the Socialists themselves, being politicians, will no doubt sabotage themselves by opportunistic concessions and compromises to secure votes. But in the longer run, longer than the elections coming up in 2012 (or possibly earlier), something like Caldera's "IDEAS" ideas are a prize worth fighting for.
Spain Economy Watch (Edward Hugh)
Los empleos de la economía sostenible -- ELPAÍS.com
Fundación Ideas
Spanish Premier Insists Economic Recovery Is Near - NYTimes.com
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