2004

Check out "Archives" (link on the left) for 2003/01/01, to see what predictions I made last year. So far, #1, that Hugo Chávez would survive the employers' strike in Venezuela, has held up. #2, that Lula (Brazilian President Luiz Inacia da Silva) would advance economic democracy in his country, I think has also held up -- but (as we knew it would) it's proven to be a complicated task. These next ones have not yet come true, but I'm still hoping:

3) The Russians' stupid repression of Chechens, and the Chechens' reckless assaults on Russians, may so exhaust the patience of Russian citizens that they force Putin to change policy or get out.
4) Good people in Africa will keep trying (against terrible odds) to make democracy a habit -- Kenya may be the latest example.
5) The Israelis will run out of ways to punish Palestinians and out of patience with their own aggressive settlers, so more of them will demand that the government seek peace.
6) Palestinians are running out of families willing to sacrifice their children in suicidal attacks, so more of them will be willing to respond.
7) My latest novel, just completed, will become a best-seller and a movie, which will make me and my friends very happy.